Russia recognises South Ossetia and Abkhazia independence

! This post hasn't been updated in over a year. A lot can change in a year including my opinion and the amount of naughty words I use. There's a good chance that there's something in what's written below that someone will find objectionable. That's fine, if I tried to please everybody all of the time then I'd be a Lib Dem (remember them?) and I'm certainly not one of those. The point is, I'm not the kind of person to try and alter history in case I said something in the past that someone can use against me in the future but just remember that the person I was then isn't the person I am now nor the person I'll be in a year's time.

A couple of weeks ago, after Russia invaded Georgia, I said that the UN would be unable to act on Georgia because of Russia’s veto and that Federal Europe would denounce their invasion but Russia would respond along the lines of Federal Europe supported Kosovo’s universal declaration of independence so they’re doing the same in South Ossetia.

I think I’ll have a punt on the lottery this week because since then the UN drafted a resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Georgia, Russia vetoed it and now they have formally recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazian independence.

So what next?  South Ossetia has a population of around 70,000 and about half have Russian passports.  Russia has been handing out passports to the ethnic Ossetian population of South Ossetia like they’re going out of fashion to bolster South Ossetia’s claim to independence and to give themselves the all important justification for invading.  This is nothing new, there’s even a word for it: Rusification – the process of replacing one nationality and/or culture with a Russian one.

The South Ossetian seperatists want unification with North Ossetia – will Russia be giving North Ossetia to South Ossetia or does their respect for the wishes of Ossetians only extend to those that live in Georgia?  If Chechnya is anything to go by then it’s unlikely we’ll see a unified Ossetia any time soon.  Or perhaps Russia’s imperial ambitions go a little futher than rebuilding the network of client states it built up in the soviet era and South Ossetia is to be incorporated into Russia proper.  I really wouldn’t be surprised if Russia has already had talks with the South Ossetian government to decide what’s going to happen already – this certainly wasn’t a spontaneous campaign, it must have been planned some time ago.

So what’s the difference between Kosovo and South Ossetia and Abkhazia?  Both have their own national governments, both have held referenda on independence and both have declared unilateral independence.  But the Kosovans stopped shooting Serbians (mostly) years ago and Kosovo has been run as an independent state by the UN for almost a decade.  Georgia has attempted to assert control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia almost constantly since 1991.

If South Ossetians and Abkhazians want independence then fine, let them have it.  But South Ossetia wants unification with North Ossetia and that’s not going to happen unless South Ossetia is annexed by Russia.  That’s not independence.

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  1. Charlie Marks (365 comments) says:

    The roots of this lie in Kosovo’s declaration of independence being recognised by several European powers & the US, of course – the Russian bear didn’t growl at the time… I can’t see a quick entry into the Russian Federation for either Abkhazia or South Ossetia, though. It would be too obvious. A few years down the line, possibly. It’s worth noting that Georgia etc were part of the Russian Empire, which pre-dated the Soviet Union. Within the Soviet union Ossetia and Georgia were administratively separate and the Russian govt argues Georgia annexed S. Ossetia on declaring independence. All very complicated.

    So, One might ask what the fuck has all this got to do with us? Milibliar trying to cobble together an anti-Russian alliance, etc. Are they lying when they say it’d be easy to get an alternative route to Afghanistan if the Russians cut of access through their airspace? I wonder…

  2. axel (1214 comments) says:

    Russia after its sudden exit from the soviet union has a lot of unresolved issues and thuis is just the start of their resolution.

    Estonia will be a real bugger from them

    Krim will be problematic

    Trans-dneister will be the interesting one, (I wonder if the Trans is viz a viz moscow or as tradition states it should be and Rome?)

  3. wonkotsane (1133 comments) says:

    Probably more to do with the gas pipeline that runs through South Ossetia …

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