Election Prediction

! This post hasn't been updated in over a year. A lot can change in a year including my opinion and the amount of naughty words I use. There's a good chance that there's something in what's written below that someone will find objectionable. That's fine, if I tried to please everybody all of the time then I'd be a Lib Dem (remember them?) and I'm certainly not one of those. The point is, I'm not the kind of person to try and alter history in case I said something in the past that someone can use against me in the future but just remember that the person I was then isn't the person I am now nor the person I'll be in a year's time.

The election is almost upon us and it’s time for a prediction I think: Nick Clegg will be Prime Minister.

Now, don’t get any silly ideas about the Lib Dems winning the election because they won’t.  The Tories will win the election with most seats but they won’t have a working majority and Cameron would rather go without than share power.  The newspaper ads and constant talk about how terrible a hung parliament would be confirm that Cameron is out for absolute power and nothing less.

There will be no shortage of offers to form a coalition with Cast Iron Dave but they will be rebuffed.  The party faithful will be told that it’s better to let a LibLab coalition limp along for a few months before collapsing and then the Tories can romp home to victory in a snap election.  Most of them will fall for it of course and those that don’t will accept it for the greater good.

So that just leaves the Lib Dems and Labour.  The Lib Dems will come second on Thursday, relegating Labour to third place.  Clegg will want a coalition of the left which rules out the Tories and whilst the SNP and Plaid will make gains at the election (the former more so than the latter) they won’t have enough lobby fodder for Clegg to see off the Tories so it will be a LibLab coalition with Clegg as Prime Minister.

Whether El Gordo will manage to cling on as leader after the election remains to be seen.  Mandelson is already leader in all but name and I expect him to take over the reins from El Gordo at some point after the election.  Clegg says he won’t work with Brown but once he smells victory he’ll soon change his tune.

And what about the non-LibLabCon/celtic nationalists?  Well, UKIP will come out with a handful of MPs – I think between three and five.  The BNP will retain some deposits but they won’t win and seats.  The English Democrats will spring a few surprises but won’t win any seats.  The Greens will come worryingly close to winning a seat but won’t quite make it.


  1. David Rickard (4 comments) says:

    There are so many different permutations to all this depending on the relative shares of votes and seats won by the parties. Remember, in a hung parliament, it will be down to Brown to try to put together a coalition first. I would hope the Lib Dems would refuse to work with him, especially if Labour came third in the popular vote.

    But then it would be down to Cameron to try next, as the party with the next-largest (and possibly the largest) share of seats. If Cameron thinks he can get away without doing a deal with the Lib Dems, which will depend on how close he is to an overall majority, he will do. But if the Tories needed the Lib Dems’ support, I don’t think he would turn down the opportunity for power even if Clegg made PR a precondition of any deal.

    So with the way the polls are going now, my prediction would be the Tories winning a small majority or near to one and, in the latter event, trying to carry on as a minority government with the highly conditional support of the Nats and NI unionists. The Lib Dems might offer not to oppose the Tories’ Queen’s Speech in such circumstances but might then oppose the Tories’ first budget and try to force them to reduce the severity of their cuts. The Tories would either then manage to push through their budget, with the help of the Nats and unionists (to whom they’d offer a massive Barnett / fiscal bribe), or fail and then blame Labour and the Lib Dems, and call a snap election to get the mandate to follow through with their deficit-reduction plan.

    Let’s see which prediction is closer to what happens!

  2. revinkevin (176 comments) says:

    The best thing that could happen is the Tories needing UKIP or English Democrats to form a government.

    That way a referendum on leaving the EUssr and a referendum on an English Parliament.

  3. Kev (10 comments) says:

    If the prospect wasn’t absolutely terrifying, we should all vote labour then the bastards would have to clean up their own mess and they wouldn’t be able to blame any one else for causing it or for the drastic remedies to cure it.

  4. Lightf00t (1 comments) says:

    I think Nick Griffin will be an MP by the end of the week.

  5. Sarah (21 comments) says:

    Do you really think there is a chance of UKIP seats? I’d be interested to see that happen.

  6. Ajax Harington (1 comments) says:

    I’m voting Lava-Tory…

  7. George Ashcroft (122 comments) says:

    I will be very surprised if the Tory Party emerges with any kind of Parliamentary majority once the final votes are counted. Much will depend on just how far short the Tories are. A handful of seats could see a deal with the Ulster Unionist DUP to bolster an incoming Conservative government.

    What is more likely is that UKIP will cream off enough right-wing support from the Tories in at least 27 seats to put the Conservative candidate into second place. Meanwhile, the surge in support for the Liberal Democrats will mean that the Tories will take few, if any, of their Liberal/Tory marginal targets.

    Elsewhere, much will depend on the strength of the Lib Dem vote. I suspect that a strong vote for the Liberals will probably hurt the Tories more than Labour as undecided swing voters plump for Nick Clegg’s party rather than that of David Cameron. This could even leave Labour as the biggest party. I predicted this in the Shropshire Star and on this website months ago and cautioned the Tories against their arrogance. I don’t care much now for Tory Party which has taken the electorate for granted. When I was first elected as a Conservative I never took a single vote for granted. It was the Tory Party that changed, not me.

    However, I say this: forget the talk of tactical voting. Whether Tom or Jerry win the poll in Telford will make little difference. It might as well be Harry of Larry – both of the main party candidates are pretty useless. Instead, vote with your heart.

    For the first time, at this election, I am backing the Liberal Democrats and for 2 reasons: Nick Clegg and Vince Cable. I don’t agree with them on each and every issue but they have impressed me greatly over many months. Clegg has been outstanding throughout the campaign. Contrary to the attacks, I believe that his policy on immigration is the right one and that the other two parties are duplicitous on this issue and on a number of others.

    Having said that, my old friend Denis Allen is standing for UKIP in Telford. I like Denis but I am not keen on his party. Dear reader, it may be that you fundamentally disagree with the Liberal Democrats in certain areas and cannot vote for them yourself. May I say then that Denis Allen would make an excellent constituency MP and he would be my second choice if this election were being run under a PR system.

    In any event, vote for what you believe and the kind of society you want to see for your children. But do vote. I will be back tomorrow to see my predictions vindicated or to eat humble pie. I might even put in an appearance at the count before then. See you later.

  8. Home Rule for England (10 comments) says:

    Scottish Labour won 39 seats in 2005 Welsh Labour 29 seats. In the event of a hung parliament and Labour forming a majority, the WLQ (Welsh Lothian Question!?)could come in to play on every English matter! Especially if Labour need to work with Clegg, as the Lib Dems will most likely have some Scottish and Welsh MPs.
    Will Labour dare to use Scottish and Welsh MP’s to pass English legislation, particularly if they are looking to go back to the country in a fairly short space of time? Will the Lib Dems go along with it and let their Scottish and Welsh MPs vote on English matters? If they don’t then there won’t be much happening in Westminster!
    It’s going to be very interesting and there are a number of outcomes that could prove to the advantage of the English nationalist cause.

  9. George Ashcroft (122 comments) says:

    “In the event of a hung parliament and Labour forming a majority, the WLQ (Welsh Lothian Question!?)could come in to play on every English matter! Especially if Labour need to work with Clegg, as the Lib Dems will most likely have some Scottish and Welsh MPs.”

    You could be right and under such circumstances I think that the call for an English Parliament could become irresistable.

  10. axel (1214 comments) says:

    up here, in the barbarian lands, the boys in blue have been quiet, very quiet, i think, they are wanting the SNP and liberals to destroy labour and i think they might. Although we are only squabbling over 60 seats up here, most of them are labour, so I think cameron will use a scorched earth policy, to screw labour and maybe get rid of scotland.

    he will set a trap for Salmond by publicly offering independence\seperation, salmond will have to take it and cameron will be able to get rid of us and all our problems, the scottish conservative party is a small sacrifice to pay for a serious majority in england for the next generation

  11. Home Rule for England (10 comments) says:

    Let’s hope you are right Axel. A large number of SNP MP’s would do very nicely. Of course if Cameron really wanted to ‘get rid’ of Scotland as you put it, he should let England have an independence referendum!
    Of course what we really want is for Alex Salmond to get more than 50%. Then we would be nearly home and dry. No Tory MPs in Scotland would also help.

  12. wonkotsane (1133 comments) says:

    Not going happen axel, he wants power badly and he wants it all. That’s why he spent a fortune on newspaper ads about how “dangerous” a hung parliament will be. The only danger is the limit it will place on his ambition and ability to wield power. He may call Salmond’s bluff on an independence referendum knowing it will be a no but I don’t think he would risk it.

    George, it was so long ago you were wholly opposed to an English Parliament. I knew you’d come around eventually. 😉

  13. slim (8 comments) says:

    great prediction stu!!!! oh yeah

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